The official storm support website for the United States is a priceless resource for those in the know. For example, before Hurricane Nicole even made landfall, it was updated with information about the storm.
In its 10 PM (EST) update, the hurricane center informed the state that Subtropical Storm Nicole had located about 415 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas. It’s now moving northwest at 8 mph, with its maximum sustained winds being 45 mph with higher gusts.
Nicole is forecast to reach hurricane intensity, meaning it could be at or near a category 3 or 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, by Wednesday or Wednesday night as it moves near or over the northwestern Bahamas.
Hurricane Nicole is expected to gain hurricane force in the next 48 hours. The hurricane center at 10 PM noted that there is typically a large amount of uncertainty in storm intensity forecasts.
In addition to the previously issued hurricane warning, at 10 PM, the National Hurricane Center also announced a tropical storm warning for Hallandale Beach northward along Florida’s east coast to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.
Just last week, Governor Ron DeSantis announced a State of Emergency in 34 counties that fall in the path of the hurricane. This includes all of Central Florida, which has a population of over 8 million people.
Governor DeSantis released the following public safety declaration regarding Hurricane Nicole: “We will continue to monitor this storm as it moves toward Florida. While the storm seems like it won’t get much stronger, it’s still important to be prepared and listen to relevant announcements from local emergency management officials.”
The five-day forecast has the storm making a path that will lead it to make landfall somewhere between Miami and Brevard County, then crossing back out of Florida over northwest central Florida on Thursday.
It will shift course Friday while still inland and moving south up through the center of the state all the way back into southern Florida on Sunday.
In the event of a potential Hurricane Nicole, it’s predicted to become a tropical storm after staying well out past the Caribbean and Bahamas.
This results in Hurricane Nicole being less predictable since its path and intensity have not yet reached hurricane categorization. The three-day cone of uncertainty is at a range from south of Miami up through Volusia County, with landfall possibly just north of West Palm Beach.
A subtropical cyclone is similar to a tropical system in terms of its formation, meaning that it comes from low pressure with a closed surface-level wind circulation and some deep convection.
However, its winds are spread out much farther, with less symmetry, and it has cooler upper-level temperatures in the core.
A tropical system gains most of its energy from warm waters that are sucked up through the center at high speeds. While subtropical systems get most of their energy from baroclinic sources, which mix with neighboring high or low-pressure systems to balance temperature and pressure.
